Fowler, for his part, refuses to change anything until he sees what the well holds.

His company is the most closely watched methane prospector in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough since Evergreen Resources left the state in 2004. The Colorado company a year before had scooped up a swath of mineral leases and kicked off a furor over drinking water and private property rights.

Riley, a 3-year-old when her family moved to a Matanuska Valley farm in 1935, now lives on 40 acres with her husband, Paul, their son and daughter, and a little bed and breakfast that's scant help defraying property tax payments -- $10,000 a year, despite a farm deferment and senior deductions.

It's exciting to think royalties could help pay those taxes, she said. Also exciting: the prospect of a whole new natural gas supply for Cook Inlet, practically in the backyard.

"We're praying," Riley said. "We're praying for his operation, that it will do something good for us and the Valley."

Fowler Oil and Gas hopes to start producing gas at this first pilot well in the fall, Bob Fowler said. According to calculations posted on the company's Web site, the four families could earn from $1,000 to $6,000 an acre per year in royalties for 50 years if the well succeeds.

A NUMBERS GAME

But there's no guaranteeing it will.

Fowler calculated its potential royalties based on faulty analysis of two geological studies, say the authors of those studies. They say Fowler overestimates the amount of coal below the Kircher field and the amount of gas that coal might hold.

Bob Fowler stands behind his predictions.

The company might rely on published studies, but the only way to know how much coal lies under the hayfield is to drill and find out, Fowler said.

"Royalty projections are based on the best available data," he wrote. "Once the Kircher well is in production, we will know exactly what the flow rates are and what the actual royalties will be."

According to the Fowler company Web site, the coal beneath the Kircher field holds 422 cubic feet of gas per ton. Fowler cites a state Oil and Gas Division report.

But that number -- and the version of the report cited -- is wrong, said Tim Ryherd, a commercial analyst with the state Department of Natural Resources. The correct gas content figure is nearly half that, or 245 cubic feet per ton.

Working as a state geologist in 1994, Ryherd was part of a team that tested gas levels in coal seams off Church Road, about eight miles west of the Kircher well.

Ryherd said the right information showed up in peer-reviewed reports. But a spreadsheet inadvertently spun accurate raw data into the wrong final results that appeared on the state Web site, he said.

The state corrected the error two months ago, after state officials contacted Ryherd about Fowler's estimates. But it's not Ryherd's job to make sure Fowler corrects his numbers too, he said.

Asked about the incorrect data, Fowler said his information comes directly from raw data gleaned during the state tests.

"If necessary, we will amend the figures, either up or down, after our coring and testing is completed," he said.

Ryherd, provided Fowler's response, said he's sticking to his guns: Fowler is not using the raw numbers.

"The raw numbers would be much lower ... and the raw numbers are available on our Web site," he said.

SIX HUNDRED FEET

Fowler Oil and Gas describes a total 600-foot-thick bed of coal in various seams down to 3,000 feet beneath that hayfield. Bob Fowler said that figure comes from the U.S. Geological Survey. A company report provides a link to a map showing a broad overview of the Tyonek coal layer stretching north from the Kenai Peninsula to the Mat-Su. The map shows a cumulative 600-foot-thick coal "contour" over the site of Fowler's well.

But using that map to predict coal layers at the Kircher field is like using a road map to find a hiking trail, according to Romeo Flores, a USGS researcher in Denver. He responded to questions by e-mail.

"Such an approach would push the data beyond its intended use," wrote Flores.

The map Fowler cites is actually based on a publication of the Geological Society of America that Fowler has not correctly acknowledged on its Web site, Flores said. That publication also shows that coal thickness varies significantly from well to well.

A more site-specific report of existing wells around Houston estimates coal thickness would shrink to less than 50 feet near the Fowler well. That report was prepared by Unocal and Ocean Energy geologists.

Fowler said the actual thickness of the coal bed wouldn't be known until his company drills a core test. He also pointed out that the industry report involved no wells near his.

WAIT AND SEE

This spring, Fowler told the group Friends of Mat-Su, advocates of planned growth, that he has leases with landowners on 30,000 to 40,000 acres around the borough, said Kathy Wells, the group's executive director. Fowler has worked fairly closely with the group, which helped write the borough's 2004 methane law in the wake of Evergreen's departure.

Several Point MacKenzie landowners said a Fowler representative approached them to sign lease contracts.

Friends of Mat-Su continues to get calls from landowners wondering whether they should sign leases with Fowler, Wells said. She gives them all the same advice: Wait and see what this pilot well does before signing any paperwork. Get with a lawyer if you eventually do.

For her part, Helen Riley said she, too, will wait and see before passing judgment on the well near her place, and just how much gas it might hold.

Riley said she doesn't feel like Fowler guaranteed anything. And any little bit would allow her family to make some money off their land.

"How can you know unless you're underground and looking at it?" she said. "We're just looking for anything that'll help us."

Zaz Hollander can be found online at adn.com/contact/zhollander or by calling her in Wasilla at 907-352-6711.